Enter the Dragon

A scenario around a KMT victory in the Chinese Civil War, inspired by a discussion in the AH.com forum.

When discussing how such a China would be, there seem to be two main opinions: one that extrapolates OTL Taiwan to mainland China, which I find either naive or politically disingenuous... the other seems to think that, in spite decades of autarky, the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, China would be worse off without them, something I call the Great Leap of Faith. I've tried something else.

ITTL, the Marshall Mission was aborted and, instead of reorganizing, the CPC further disorganized. Mao was killed in 1946, and by late 1947, the remnants of the CPC ended up capitulating. Facing still lots of resistance between the peasantry and with the state still incredibly corrupt and not fully stabilized, the first years were grim and ridled with brutal acts of repression. But by the early 50's the Republic of China had put its act together to a degree, and started to resemble a functional state. Debating between American and Soviet friendship, frictions over Mongolia were a defining factor that put China firmly into the American sphere, opening to a world economy that saw the opportunity in the single biggest unified market. Where IOTL there was a Cuban crisis, ITTL there was a Mongolian crisis, as a coup by conservative pro-Chinese Mongolian elements in the early 60's showed ROC and American funding.

The 60's and 70's were the years of the Chinese Miracle, and fears of China displacing America as the world hegemon were common in the latter stages of the Cold War. The late 70's saw a terrible global crisis that ended the trend, a combination of the social decay of the OTL 70's with the dire economy of our Great Recession (in a US that had had a more timid Civil Rights movement, that meant a leftwards, not rightwards turn, even if it ended up being much more social than economic).

The Cold War ended earlier: a timid reformer involuntarily instigated color revolutions in the late 70's (hardliner Bulgaria and post-Colonels, strange Eurocommunist Greece were exceptions), but was able to keep much of the Soviet structure intact, and even draw India closer to its sphere (India is still democratic, but never experienced market reforms, being poorer than IOTL, but with less disparities) Nowadays, competition between the West and the Communists is mostly limited and geopolitical, comparable to the US-Russia relations of today.

Apartheid also ended earlier, with the effects of the crisis combining with greater sanctions. Nowadays, South Africa has extensive trade agreements with both China and the US, without being specifically commited to any of them. The combination of a more fractured Commonwealth due to the pre-eminence of other geopolitical alignments, with the economic miracles of Nigeria and Tanzania, prompted an English-speaking economic partnership between several African countries, under British auspice. The Pacific countries not under Chinese aegis, in spite of their cultural differences, have formed a bloc to defend themselves against her influence. Japan remains a bit behind OTL, but is younger and economically more dynamic.

The main rogue states of TTL are Zaire and Sudan. The former was, as IOTL, a product of a coup by Mobutu, in a more chaotic context that pushed Katanga and Kasai into the Western camp, and the Lumumbists much more explicitly into the Soviet camp. The resulting Zaire was as wary of the West as of the East, and took Zaireanization much further. While absolutely unable to start a nuclear program, their irredentist claims threat to destabilize the whole continent. As for Sudan, the failure to build a national state resulted in a Totalitarian, non-aligned, non-sectarian movement between the military. As of 2015, only satellite images allow to make speculations of what actually goes on there, and they're at the very least unpleasant.

The crisis effects in China included a timid democratization and renovation of its camarilla, now oficially decided to lead unaligned countries under a net of economic and military assistance to defend the sovereignity of the nations (it seems that sovereignity amost always entails authoritarianism to some degree, with the notable exception of a more stable Argentina whose dominant party pays lip service to a right-wing form of Peronism) against American or Soviet play. With the recovery of the mid 80's, it became clear that the Sino-American Split had shaped a new international order.

The Arab Cooperation Council, that ITTL is basically the club of the petro-monarchies (including Libya) is an influent and concerning player. The latest ones to join the party are the countries of the so-called People's Tide or Galeanismo. In some ways it might remember OTL Bolivarianism with its Democratic Socialist goals, but it is a much more definite doctrine: the singular reality of Latin America resists Marxist interpretation or Capitalist recipes, hence it needs her own metanarrative. Such countries at best resemble the Popular Fronts of interwar France and Spain, and at worst, are Bolivia.

2015 China is an interesting place. Even more crowded but less polluted, more democratic but still authoritarian and with the rules fixed in a way that that the KMT cannot lose. Much more influent culturally, taking the role of OTL Japan in that aspect. Richer, as the the world in general is, but not exent of great disparities. Rampant Triads activity (which is starting to become a global concern) and much more intact cultural heritage. The pundits of the past might have been wrong abut the 21st century being -in exclusivity- the Chinese century. But nobody could deny that, in the world state of affairs, the never trivial China has a lot to say, and will have a lot to say for the centuries to come.